With most attentioned turned to Couture vs. Gonzaga and St. Pierre vs. Koscheck, we are looking a little deeper for a good betting value.  Our pick, Marcus Aurelio  over Clay Guida. 

Current odds have Clay Guida at -120 (meaning you have to  bet $120 to win $100) and Marcus Aurelio at -110.

Both of these guys are solid fighters with respectable records.  Clay “The Carpenter” Guida is an exciting fighter who can press the pace the entire match.  He is no stranger to top quility competition with his last three fights in the “big show,” the UFC.  His first UFC fight was a victory over Justin James (a fighter with a 12-7 record) via rear naked choke.  Since then he has lost his last two bouts via decision at the hands of Din Thomas and Tyson Griffin.  Although at one point he was on a 15 fight winning streak they were at smaller shows and against lesser fighters.  He has gone on to lose 5 of his last 8 fights.

Marcus “Maximus” Aurelio comes into this fight with a 14-4 (all losses coming via decision with two of those split decisions) fight record and like Guida is coming off of two straight losses.  This will be Aurelio’s first fight in the UFC but he is by no means a stranger to top level competition as his last 6 fights were at Pride.  Aurelio has textbook takedowns and is a master on the groud.  His intensity can match that of Guida and he is a more technical fighter.  He drew a lot of attention when he submitted Takanori Gomi last year at Pride Bushido 10.  Heading into that fight Gomi had won 10 staight, including victories over Jens Pulver, Charles “Crazy Horse” Bennett, Ralph Gracie, and Hayato Sakurai.  Since then, Aurelio and Gomi have rematched with Aurelio coming up short with a split decision loss. 

Overall, Aurelio has faced stiffer competition and is a more well rounded fighter than Guida.  In reality, Aurelio should be the betting favorite in the fight.  The fact that he is not makes it ever easier to lay our money on him.

Put up your $110 on Aurelio and take home an extra $100. 

Think you know how to pick fight winners?  Well put your money where your mouth is.  Here is the current betting line for UFC 74 (as determined by Bodog.com):

Gabriel Gonzaga  -125
Randy Couture  -105
 
Georges St-Pierre  -220
Josh Koscheck  +180
 
Roger Huerta  -450
Alberto Crane  +300 

Joe Stevenson  -295
Kurt Pellegrino  +235

Frank Mir  -170
Antoni Hardonk  +140

Clay Guida  -140
Marcus Aurelio  +110
 
Thales Leites  -270
Ryan Jensen  +210

Renato Sobral  -210
David Heath  +170

Kendall Grove  -260
Patrick Cote  +200

The early fight poll results for UFC 74 (as determined by voting on UFC.com) show that there is not a single match that is close to having even odds.  On every card there are always those one or two “tough calls” where people are split down the middle 50/50 (see Ortiz vs. Evans UFC 73).  Not the case right now with UFC 74.  While some picks are probably resasonable, the gap in odds is leaving us scratching our heads.  Here is how the “who will win” polling is breaking out thus far:

Roger Huerta- 95%
Alberto Crane- 5%

Renato Sobral- 90%
David Heath- 10%

Joe Stevenson- 90%
Kurt Pellegrino- 10%

Travis Lutter- 85%
Ryan Jensen- 15%

George St. Pierre- 81%
Josh Koscheck- 19%

Frank Mir- 79%
Antoni Hardonk- 21%

Randy Couture- 75%
Gabriel Gonzaga- 25%

Clay Guida- 74%
Marcus Aurelio- 26%

Kendall Grove- 72%
Patrick Cote- 28%

If you think the voters are smoking crack, go to the UFC.com poll page here and cast your own vote

Checking aroud the online sports books, all the major odds-makers have Gabriel Gonzaga the favorite to take Rany Couture’s championship belt.  Around the horn:

Bodog Sports
Gabriel Gonzaga  -135
Randy Couture   +105

Sportsbook.com
Gabriel Gonzaga  -125
Randy Couture   +105

Mysportsbook.com
Gabriel Gonzaga  -125
Randy Couture   +105

BetonFighting.com
Gabriel Gonzaga  -140
Randy Couture   +110

Other, and not so surprising, early odds have George St. Pierre the heavy favorite against Josh Koscheck with GSP hoovering around -225 and Kos +185

Here are the betting odds for tonight’s TUF finale:

Manny Gamburyan -130
Nathan Diaz EVEN

BJ Penn -350
Jens Pulver +250

Roger Huerta -900
Doug Evans +500

Lauzon -650
Brandon Melendez +375
 
Cole Miller -450
Andy Wang +275
 
Gray Maynard -450
Rob Emerson +275
 
Leonard Garcia -900
Allen Berube +500
 
Matt Wiman -350
Brian Geraghty +225
 
Thales Leites -650
Floyd Sword +375

BEST VALUE:  I take Rob Emerson .  To win $275 from a $100 bet is a solid value considering how tough Emerson proved himself to be during the TUF season.  He’s a great striker with a huge heart.  If he can avoid the take down or weather the storm while on the ground, Emerson should dominate the stand up.  Don’t look for Gray to walk righ through him. 

MOST LIKELY WINNER:  Cole Miller without a doubt. Andy Wang showed me nothing on TUF except how not to follow a fight plan.  Huerta is the most heavily favored fighter as determined by the odds above, but I don’t like the fact that Evans is a bit of an unknown.  With Cole vs Wang I know exactly what to expect.  Money  is on Cole Miller.  

FRANK SHAMROCK +105
PHIL BARONI -135

MURILLO RUA -125
JOEY VILLASENOR -105

CARTER WILLIAMS +115
PAUL BUENTELLO -145

TONY FRYKLUND +240
CUNG LE -300

PAUL DALEY +105
DUANE LUDWIG -135

AARON WETHERSPOON +205
MIKE PYLE -255

NICK GONZALEZ +500
JOSH THOMPSON -700

*Source:  Bet On Fighting.com